Windows 的空前成功佐證了這種說法。Apple把 Mac OS 封閉起來,微軟則向其它公司發放 Windows 使用權。微軟贏了,所以這條路走得通。然後,Apple先是用 iPhone 改造了智慧型手機市場,然後又硬是以 iPad 變出了個平板市場。突然間,「閉門造車」式發展路線似乎又成了更好的選擇。
Apple已經占盡了先機。如果肯為那些附加其它價值(設計,應用和品牌等)的智慧型手機或平板電腦付出額外金錢的用戶群體是固定的話,那麼我們可以大膽地假設Apple已經搶在所有人面前吞掉了這個群體的絕大部分了。剩下的是那些對價格更為敏感的消費者。這給微軟和 Google 的行動設備部門留下了一種可怕的可能性:和Apple一樣高的成本,但卻沒有Apple一樣高的利潤。Google 有廣告業務來抵消這種負面影響。承受著股東壓力和投入更多資源的微軟可就沒多少操作空間了。
陰謀論者應該會愛死這些話。早在這次的收購事件之前,一些Sybiam的死忠粉絲抱怨過 Stephen Elop 是微軟送給Nokia的特洛伊木馬:搞垮Nokia以便於微軟收購。但我不認為 Elop 是木馬,因為他之前的Nokia管理層已經在搞垮公司這件事上做得很好了。
接下來會發生什麼?現在,軟體加硬體三足鼎立的格局已經形成了,那麼會有其它的廠商繼續效仿這種模式嗎?準確地說,三星會不會也打算為自己找一個新的 OS?三星已經有 Bada OS 了,並且有消息稱會和 Tizen 結合。中國的廠家會感到壓力嗎?如果他們要行動的話,市面已經沒多少 OS 可買了。或許黑莓是個不錯的選擇,但是加拿大政府會同意嗎?(mobileopportunity.blogspot.com)
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